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　　 　　Alarm bells ring over the electoral victory for the radical organization, throwing the region into turmoil yet again
　　
　　The Palestinian legislative elections of January 25 were keenly watched by the White House as a milestone in the Mideast democratic progress. But a victory for the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) has put paid to its plans.
　　Hamas got an overwhelming majority of 74 seats in the 132-seat parliament in the elections, defeating previously long-dominant Palestine National Liberation Movement (Fatah) led by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Hamas is listed as a terror organization by Israel, the United States and the European Union (EU). The surprise victory of Hamas has triggered world concern over the prospects for the stalemated Mideast peace process.
　　It was Hamas’ first legislative bid as the group boycotted the first Palestinian elections in 1996 in opposition to the Oslo Accords signed between the Palestine Liberation Organization led by late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and Israel in 1993.
　　
　　Reasons for win
　　
　　
　　“This is a surprising result,” said Yin Gang, a researcher with the Institute of West Asian and African Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). He noted that although people predicted that Hamas might win some seats, for example, at most 40, nobody expected that the movement could get more than half the seats. Yin attributed the win to the following reasons:
　　First, Hamas has won the trust of ordinary Palestinians by garnering grassroots support through the building of such institutions as schools and orphanages. Its announcement last April of renouncing terrorism also helped boost this trust.
　　Second, Hamas leaders have rarely been involved in scandals such as bribery. With the Fatah failing the people on enhancing social and economic conditions in the country, more Palestinians looked to Hamas for social reforms.
　　Third, Israel’s hardline policies combined with the U.S. democracy plan helped Hamas take the political center stage. Last August, the Israeli army withdrew from Gaza unilaterally--without any agreement that underscored Abbas’ authority. Palestinians saw the pullout as a victory for Hamas’ military resistance. Likud said the Hamas victory in the election was a direct result of Israel’s disengagement plan carried out under the leadership of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, because Palestinians concluded from the Gaza pullout that violence was the way to go.
　　
　　
　　Future of Mideast peace
　　
　　Hamas leaders said February 4 after a meeting with Abbas in Gaza that the group hoped to form a cabinet later in the month after the new parliament is sworn in February 16. The Abbas-led Fatah has agreed to form a joint government with Hamas.
　　Since its establishment in 1987, Hamas has insisted that Israel should be expelled from the Middle East and all Israel-occupied Palestinian lands through military struggle. The group is behind some 60 suicide bombings since 2000, giving much cause for concern over the future of the Middle East peace process. Israel and the Middle East Quartet grouping the United States, the UN, the EU and Russia have said they will not deal with a future Palestinian Government containing Hamas unless the group renounces violence, recognizes Israel’s right to exist and accepts agreements between Palestinian National Authority and Israel, including the roadmap for peace.
　　“If a government led by Hamas or in which Hamas is a coalition partner is established, the Palestinian National Authority will be turned into an authority that supports terror,” said Israeli acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. “Israel and the world will ignore it and make it irrelevant.”
　　Hamas’ win will also affect the upcoming March general election in Israel. “Today it is clear that when Israel flees, Hamas rises. Olmert and Kadima’s continued unilateral withdrawals will harm the personal security of each and every one of us,” Likud Knesset (parliament) member Gideon Sa’ar said. Meanwhile, left-wing Labor party Chairman Amir Peretz said that Hamas’ victory may lead Israel to implement further unilateral moves.
　　Observers expect the White House to adjust its Mideast policy. It may be impossible for Washington to get rid of Hamas from a future Palestinian Government. The two sides will have to seek ways to set up a dialogue framework. A Reuters report said Hamas would have to change its image to that of a new political party rather than a military force and this portends well for Middle East peace talks. The report pointed out that in fact, Hamas has been softening its image since the time of preparing for the elections.
　　
　　Main challenges
　　
　　Hamas faces three main challenges to its political future: diplomatic isolation, financial crisis and security issues.
　　Olmert said that he is willing to hold peace talks with President Abbas at least until Hamas takes control of a future Palestinian Government. “I have no interest in harming Palestinian National Authority Chairman Abu Mazen [Abbas] as long as he doesn’t cooperate with Hamas and as long as the Palestinian Government isn’t led by Hamas,” said Olmert.
　　He also lashed out at Hamas, saying the group’s status as a terror organization remained unchanged despite its electoral victory.
　　Olmert stressed that Israel will not “play into the hands of extremists,” indicating that Israel could stop transfers of tax payments to the Palestinian side if Hamas formed the next cabinet. His announcement on January 29 that Israel would stop the monthly tax transfers caused financial panic on the Palestinian side until Israel released about $54 million in taxes to the Palestinian Authorities a week later. But Olmert has said there will be no more automatic monthly tax transfers. The Israeli Government will reexamine the situation each month and make a decision on whether to transfer the money or not. The EU and the United States have also said that if Hamas does not give up “extremist activities,” they will cut down their economic aid to the Palestinians.
　　Observers predict that if Israel stops the tax transfers and the West cuts its aid, Hamas can be staring at a $1 billion deficit for 2006, putting many government salaries at risk. Even Iran’s announcement of financial support will not help bridge the gap. Meanwhile, as Fatah has been in power for years, most security forces are Fatah supporters.
　　Yin from CASS said Hamas might have no other choice but to recognize Israel, continue the peace talks and cooperate with Fatah.
　　President Abbas has told Israel that he will be in charge of diplomatic contacts with Israel despite Hamas’ victory. He added that any talks on the formation of the cabinet before the legislature’s inauguration would be premature.

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