[Ｉｒａｎ　Ｕｐｓ　ｔｈｅ　Ａｎｔｅ] the shy

　　Reiterating its right to conduct nuclear research, the country breaks the seals placed on its nuclear installations by the International Atomic Energy Agency
　　
　　Iran’s nuclear issue has been a problem for years. In 2005, despite disputes and conflicts, the main parties to the issue such as Iran, the United States, the European Union, Russia and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) remained relatively calm. However, 2006 has brought tensions on Iran’s nuclear claims to the fore.
　　On January 10, Iran broke the IAEA seals on equipment used to produce enriched uranium, ending its suspension of those activities. Iran reiterated that it was only conducting nuclear research and development for peaceful purposes, but the IAEA said it was unable to verify Iran’s claim.
　　This time, the EU seems to have lost patience and refused to talk to Iran on this issue. After a meeting of the EU troika--Britain, Germany and France--on January 12 in Berlin, foreign ministers of the three countries said at a joint press conference that the time had come for the UN Security Council to become involved in the Iranian nuclear standoff.
　　The United States has also said it fears Iran intends to build a nuclear bomb--a charge Teheran denies. Although the White House said it was not giving up diplomatic efforts as yet, it did not deny the possibility of a military attack. It also said that if Iran violated its promises, the nuclear issue would have to be referred to the UN Security Council and sanctions against Iran launched.
　　Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan said at a regular press conference that China was appealing for a negotiated settlement to the dispute. “We hope all parties will try their best to resume the talks. And China will do its best to bring the issue back to the negotiation track,” said Kong.
　　According to Xinhua News Agency reports, China and Iran are negotiating on an energy supply program. To China, trying to settle down this nuclear issue through diplomatic channels should be the best choice.
　　Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia fully supported the call for the resumption of talks, but only on condition of Iran’s enrichment moratorium. He also noted, “Sanctions are not the best or the only way to solve international problems. We remember the history of sanctions against Iraq and know how it all ended.”
　　On January 16, Britain, France, Russia, China and the United States, key members of the UN Security Council, and Germany held a close-door meeting in London, on Iran’s nuclear crisis. They said Iran must fully suspend its nuclear program, but failed to agree on whether to refer the issue to the Security Council.
　　UN Secretary General Kofi Annan urged Iran to drop its decision to restart nuclear research in order to create conditions for the resumption of its talks with the EU. “My own advice to the Iranians is to create an environment that will allow the negotiations to go forward,” Annan said. “I think they should not escalate; they should not press ahead with their nuclear fuel research. We need time to build confidence and trust so that these negotiations will take place in an atmosphere which is appropriate.”
　　
　　The timing
　　
　　Why has Iran chosen this time to announce its resumption of nuclear research? Tian Wenlin, a researcher with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, sees the following reasons:
　　First, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s stroke has led to political chaos in Israel, which has emboldened Iran by diluting the risk of a military attack by Israel. “High-ranking Iranian officials have even publicly expressed their happiness over Sharon’s health condition and the current Israeli political crisis,” said Tian. “As long as Israel’s Mideast peace process is blocked and its political chaos remains, it has no energy to answer Washington’s summons and launch a military attack on Iran’s nuclear equipment.”
　　Second, Iran is losing patience in its talks with the EU on the nuclear issue. After more than two years, little has been achieved. Iran does not want to become the next Iraq. Nor is it willing to give up existing nuclear plans or admit to attempts to produce nuclear weapons. Therefore, before the EU and the United States consent to Iran’s nuclear research, which still has a long way to go, Iran believes that it must remove itself from the ban.
　　Third, Iran is trying to create more space for negotiations. As international observers have pointed out, Iran has been stressing research on nuclear fuel and not its production. Besides, it has said the IAEA’s supervision of the research on nuclear fuel is still welcome. Iran believes there is scope for talks with the West if concessions from both sides are possible. Several Iranian high-ranking officials have indicated that Teheran is ready to resume negotiations with the EU as long as they can end “within a time limit.”
　　“There is still hope for peacefully solving the nuclear problem,” said Tian.
　　
　　Oil ‘weapon’
　　
　　Wang Xinjun, a military expert from the Academy of Military Sciences, agreed that peaceful talks were a more practical way of solving this issue. He said a U.S. military attack was not quite possible at present. “Iran is not Iraq in 2003,” he said. Given Iran’s stable domestic situation, any external military attack will lead to a patriotic fight instead of a revolution. Iran has advanced military capabilities, modern missiles and superior air defense technology. In the event of war, it will be able to destroy all oil pipelines in the Middle East if it controls the Strait of Hormuz.
　　Besides, the White House is also in a difficult situation, Wang added. Owing to the mess in Iraq, the Bush administration is already under great domestic pressure. In early September 2005, Hurricane Katrina led to huge economic losses, and the U.S. Government’s slow response has been widely criticized. A second war in George W. Bush’s two terms might terminate his political future and make the United States vulnerable to both economic and emotional risks.
　　“U.S. army scandals in Iraq, such as the prisoner maltreatment, have already sown Muslim disappointment and even hatred toward the U.S. forces,” said Wang. Iran is a united Shiite-majority country that has a strong influence on Shiite countries around the world. If war breaks out, Washington will have to face an anti-U.S. wave among these countries.
　　With an oil output of 4 million barrels per day, Iran is the second largest oil producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The oil crisis in 2005 has proved that any instability in the Middle East could badly hit the world economy. Once Iran announces a stop to its oil production, the world oil price could reach $100 a barrel, unfolding a nightmare to all oil-importing countries, including the United States. On January 15, Iranian Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance Davoud Danesh-Jaafari warned that oil prices could rise to unexpected levels if the country was subjected to sanctions over its disputed nuclear program. “Any sanctions in the current situation would be more detrimental to the West than to Iran,” said the minister.
　　Nonetheless, Iran is preparing for possible sanctions. On January 20, it announced that it had started transferring its foreign currency from European banks, to avoid a capital freeze. According to the U.S.-based Associated Press, the transferred funds could touch $50 billion. Iran has already suggested to OPEC to decrease its daily oil output by 1 million barrels from April, thereby hinting at using its “oil weapon” in the future.
　　Teheran is also trying to build up more outside support. At a joint news conference with his visiting Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on January 19, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad pledged his country’s support for Iran’s nuclear program. “We back the idea of a dialogue between Iran and the international parties. We also reject the pressure being exerted on Iran,” he said, adding, “countries who oppose this gave no convincing reason, regardless of whether it is legitimate or not.”
　　Iran is trying to woo Russia as well. The head of Russia’s Federal Atomic Energy Agency, Sergei Kiriyenko, asserted that Teheran was “extremely interested” in Moscow’s proposal to enrich uranium for Iran’s nuclear program and was “ready to move to a detailed discussion” of the idea.
　　The senior official said the Russian plan envisaged uranium enrichment on Russian territory and the return of spent nuclear fuel to Russia by Iran.
　　Iran wants to settle the dispute over its nuclear program through negotiations with the help of Europe, Russia and China, said the Iranian Ambassador to Russia Gholamreza Ansari. He added that Iran would view a referral of its nuclear plans to the Security Council as “a hostile move.”
　　Analysts said Iran is hoping to start multilateral talks--similar to the six-party talks on the Korean nuclear crisis--on the matter.
　　The tense situation continues. Annan said, “If all else fail and the process is exhausted and the issue is to come here, then the council will have to deal with it.” The EU has called for an emergency session of the IAEA on February 2 to vote on referring Iran to the Security Council to face possible sanctions after Iran resumed sensitive nuclear research. It is reported that IAEA chief Mohammed ElBaradei has decided to give Iran one month to make the final decision; and if Teheran does not stop its nuclear research before March, the issue will be taken before the UN Security Council.

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