NATO:,Past,,Present,,and,Future.

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????????????By Prof. Vojtech Mastny (????????????????????????????????????)

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????Thank you very much. It is a pleasure for me to be here. It??s a very special day for me for two reasons: first of all because it??s the first time that I come to Peking University. And secondly as I mentioned in the introduction that it is also a day my book has published and translated to Chinese. I am very pleased about that. It is very great for you professors for inviting me here. I recently have joined a project about NATO. I will circulate here the latest brochure about the project.

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????Before I go on, I assume that everybody can understand me very well, because I was expecting you to understand English. My English is somewhat indistinct. My wife often tells me about that. If you think that I am speaking too fast, just let me know it. I think that will help me to improve my performance.

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????Well. What I present today is about NATO: its past, present and future. Because I am a historian, so I will talk mostly about the past. But at the same time, I keep an eye on the present and also say something about the future. Maybe I will not narrowly focus on NATO, but also make some reflections about general security issues, even some issues about China. I will speak about those China-related things from a perspective of a man who is not a specialist in the area, although I am very interested in China. I am very concerned about the future of the United States and China relations. The relations are particularly important not only for the two countries but for the world at large. In the long run, I will have more chances to be here. Next time I will be here much longer but I hope the result will have more influence on the relations of two countries.

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????Let me speak about the history of the NATO. When the Cold War ended in 1989, or maybe 1991 with the collapse of the Soviet Union. That gave us two better things. First of all, it was the first time for us to get access to some of the documents which had been made inaccessible by the Cold War, particularly those Soviet Union documents. I myself still remember the time that I was first able to do research in Soviet Union archives in 1992 just after the end of the Soviet Union and I was excited because I touched those documents I never expected that I would be able to see. To see the documents in the Soviet Union archives. And the second thing is more important: we were not looking the Cold War the way we had been at the time the Cold War was still lasting. For one thing, the Soviet threat faced such an important change. During the Cold War, it was a motive for the beginning of the Cold War. The threat was no longer there. We could look at it more correctly. At the same time we could make some conclusions where is right and where is wrong. That caused the NATO??s establishment in 1949, when it was created. There was a great fear in the Europe in particular for the overwhelming Soviet power, particularly military power. At that time the founders of the NATO believed that it was necessary to create a new alliance in order to cope with this Soviet threat. But today, the documents in the Soviet Union??s side showed that the threat was not real, as it was believed to be in 1949 and also later. There was not evidence for those fears that the Soviet was actually preparing the attack West Europe. So many people believe it as a danger at that time. So was NATO necessary or just a mistake to create the military alliance for the main reason of the attack. My conclusion here is that it was still a good idea to create it as the longest lasting military alliance in the history. There was also a longest lasting peace time. As we know today, it never caused a war until the Cold War was over at a very different circumstance, the war in Yugoslavia in 1992.

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????So I believe it was a great war to create the military alliance for a number of reasons:

????First of all, to prevent in advance any possibility that then Soviet leader, Stalin, might concentrate to their advantage to transform the countries from a political ideological realm, including military as well. We know today that there was no such intention, but we don??t know what his intention might be. The existence of a military alliance might raise the cost of the potential aggression. We should mention here an example you know very well, the Korean War. At that time, Soviet materials, as well as Chinese materials, were transited to Korea after the war started. Stalin was convinced by then Korean leader, Kim yee-sung, that the military aggression in South Korea would be an easy success and that it would not lead to the involvement of the United States which Stalin feared. He was afraid of that danger before he was convinced by Kim Yee-sung that this wasn??t a risk and of course he was wrong. And the American troops involved soon. And the historical war took place.

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????Before NATO was established, there was not the same kind of organization which emphasized its risk and reactions in west Europe.(??????????????????)

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